08 Mar THE “97% CONSENSUS“ ON GLOBAL WARMING
Posted at 14:08h in Talking Points
The PC narrative: If 97% of scientists agree on something, that’s a ‘consensus’ that settles debate as to whether they are right. And 97% of climate scientists say man is causing global warming. So stop debating whether these scientists are right, and stop debating whether we must do something! Shut up and fall in line with the 97% consensus!
- A 2013 press release that touted the “97% consensus” concept stated that research led by John Cook at the University of Queensland was based on a review of 11,944 climate-related research papers published over 20+ years. So…common sense would suggest that 97% of these papers, or 11,586, confirmed the consensus. Right?
- Not even close. The very text of the 2013 press release states that 66.4% ofthe papers, or 7,931 of the 11,944 papers, stated no position on man-made global warming. Feeling confused and misled yet?
- So where did the 97% number come from? Well, on the surface, it seems to apply to the 32.6% of the papers that ‘endorsed’ man-made global warming theories.
- But even that figure is bogus. Because the trick is: what does it mean to say ‘endorsed’?
- Detailed analysis showed that three different levels of ‘endorsement’ were assigned to the various papers. “Level 1” meant that the paper could reasonably be said to affirm that most of the warming on earth that is said to have occurred since 1950 was caused by man’s activities. Levels 2 and 3 were less than ‘most’; essentially, they were positions indicating man’s activities may have something to do with warming, but without conviction or consensus as to how much of the warming was due to such activities (and, impliedly, without conviction or consensus as to how much difference in the climate would result from changing such activities).
- So…how many of the 11,944 research papers fell into Level 1—i.e., they affirmatively concluded that most of the warming on earth that may have occurred since 1950 was attributable to man’s activities? Sixty-four.
- When all 64 of those reports were re-read by an investigator, only 41actually contained the conclusion that man’s activities caused most of the warming.
- So…the math is: 41 papers out of 11,944 stated their conclusion that man’sactivities caused most of the planet’s perceived warming since 1950. For those without a calculator, that is .3% of the research papers. Not 97%, not 70%, not 51%, not 25%, not 5%, not 1%. Zero point three per cent.
Does this sound like the “97% consensus” among scientists that you have been led to believe?
So the next time someone tells you 97% of scientists agree that man’s activities are the primary cause—or ‘most’ of the cause’—of global warming, tell them that 97% number is pure baloney; utter propaganda; false, fraudulent, and totally discredited. And not just the 97% mentioned in the 2013 study by the University of Queensland—because we have yet to find any study that legitimately supports anything close to 97% agreement on the primary cause of global warming. While you’re at it, you can mention that satellite data indicates there has been no measurable warming on earth for over 18 years.